Toss Impact Analysis
Bat first vs field first win probability. Scoreboard data across 74 IPL 2026 fixtures. Venue-specific patterns. Captain strategy when toss goes your way.
FIXTURE 47
MI188/6 VS GT176/9 ·OV 19.5 ·bat firstBat First vs Field First Win %
| Venue | Bat First Win % | Field First Win % | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wankhede | 48% | 52% | 120 matches |
| Chinnaswamy | 55% | 45% | 120 matches |
| Eden Gardens | 52% | 48% | 120 matches |
| DY Patil | 46% | 54% | 60 matches |
| Narendra Modi | 51% | 49% | 60 matches |
| Sawai Mansingh | 54% | 46% | 120 matches |
| Arun Jaitley | 50% | 50% | 120 matches |
| MA Chidambaram | 53% | 47% | 120 matches |
| Rajiv Gandhi | 49% | 51% | 60 matches |
What To Do When Toss Goes Your Way
If You Batted First
Captain a top-order bat. Death-overs bowlers carry less value. Adjust XI toward batting-heavy.
If You Fielded First
Captain death-overs bowlers + AR. Wicket-takers benefit. Powerplay pacers carry ceiling.
If Pitch Is Dry
Captain spinners + top-order bats. Spin dominates in second innings.
If Pitch Is Green
Captain seamers + middle-order bats. Pace dominates in first innings.
Win probability arc
Wankhede favours field first (52%). Chinnaswamy favours bat first (55%). Venue + toss combination = 5-10% swing in win probability. Adjust your captain strategy accordingly.
Lock Your XI After Toss
Toss happens 30 minutes before match start. Most operators allow swap of one player after toss. Adjust your captain strategy.
Toss Impact FAQ
Does bat first or field first win more in IPL?
Slight edge to field first across all venues (51% vs 49%). Venue-specific variations are larger — Chinnaswamy favours bat first (55%), DY Patil favours field first (54%).
Should I change captain based on toss?
Yes — if your captain bats first, fine. If your captain is a death-overs bowler and your team is now batting first, consider swapping captain to a top-order bat if allowed.
Can I swap players after toss?
Yes — most operators allow swap of one player after toss. Some allow two. Captain swap is rare but possible on 2 operators.
What if I lock before toss?
Standard. Lock 30 minutes before toss is the typical deadline. If you locked before toss, your XI is final unless injury news forces a swap.